DCA Calculator
DCA vs lump sum backtest
Total invested
DCA value now
DCA return
Average cost
Lump sum value
Lump sum return
■ Dollar-cost averaging ■ Lump sum
Backtested on 365 days of real daily closing prices for BTC from Binance. The lump sum invests the same total on the first day of the period. This is history, not a forecast. The result depends almost entirely on the window chosen — shift the start date and the winner often changes — so treat it as a way to understand the mechanics rather than as evidence that either approach is better.
What this backtest does
Dollar-cost averaging means buying a fixed amount at a fixed interval regardless of price. The alternative is committing the whole amount at once. This tool runs both strategies over real daily closing prices and shows what each would have produced: total invested, final value, return, and — for the DCA plan — the average price you would have paid.
The chart plots both portfolio values over the period. The solid line is dollar-cost averaging, the dashed line is the lump sum. Watching the two diverge is more instructive than the final numbers, because it shows when each approach was ahead.
How to use it
- Pick an asset. Only assets we hold a genuine daily price history for are listed.
- Set the amount you would invest on each buy.
- Choose weekly, fortnightly or monthly.
- Shorten the period to test a different window.
The lump sum always invests the same total the DCA plan would invest, committed on the first day of the window, so the comparison is like for like.
The most important caveat
This is history, not a forecast. The result depends overwhelmingly on the window you pick. In a market that rose steadily, the lump sum wins almost every time, because it was exposed sooner. In a market that fell and then recovered, averaging wins, because later buys were cheaper. Shift the start date by a few weeks and the winner frequently flips. Anyone who tells you a backtest proves one approach is superior is showing you a chosen window.
What averaging genuinely offers is not higher returns but a smaller worst case and a decision you can keep making without needing to be right about timing. That is a behavioural benefit, and for many people it is the more valuable one — but it is a different claim from “it makes more money”.
What is not modelled
Trading fees, spreads, taxes on disposal, and the fact that a real plan is often interrupted. Prices are daily closes from Binance, so intraday timing is ignored. Our methodology covers the data pipeline. Nothing here is advice.
Frequently asked questions
Why can I only pick some assets? Because we only have a real daily series for those. We will not simulate a price history to fill a dropdown.
How far back does it go? Up to roughly a year of daily closes, which is what we cache.
Does a positive result mean this will work? No. See the caveat above — it means it worked in that window.